July 2013: Over the past 20 years, there have been a number of companies that have worked on supersonic commercial aircraft. Many large organizations (like Boeing, Lockheed Martin, NASA, JAXA, etc.) have been doing basic research with the hope of building a jet in 30-50 years (2050 or so). I find that rather odd, since the Concorde was designed in the 1960s and flew for almost 30 years, ending service in 2003.
So if they could build a 100 passenger Mach 2.0 supersonic jet in the 1960s with slide rules, why can’t they just build another one? Well, actually there are a couple of good reasons – and a few bad ones. The valid reasons are concerns over sonic boom, fuel economy, and market demand – with the last one being the primary driver. If there are not enough customers buying the planes, companies won’t be able to recover their R&D costs or make a profit. That is reasonable.
But the world has changed since the ’60s where there were only two sizeable markets – the US and Europe. Now, of course, we have multiple countries in Asia (China, India, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia), Brazil, South Africa, and the Middle East. All of these regions are potentially viable markets with a lot of savvy, wealthy travelers.
The bad reason why there is no replacement for the Concorde is the same reason why 1972 was the last time we set foot on the moon, with our space program stagnating since. Actually, it is a lot of reasons: lack of ambition, risk aversion, short-term-profit orientation, lowest common denominators. It is much safer to build yet another airliner like the 787 (an incredible plane) or a business jet like the Gulfstream G650 (another outstanding aircraft) – both beautiful jets, but mostly just improvements over previous models.
Don’t fear, though – a number of other companies are ambitious and driven. They are willing to take risks and look at the long-term potential of game-changing supersonic flight. These companies include Spike Aerospace, Aerion Corp, HyperMach, Reaction Engines, and others. I’ll write more about each of these companies soon.